Fortune: Economics professor says it’s a bailout because it sounds like it must be?
We have yet another “Postal Bailout!” story, this one written for Fortune by James D. Hamilton, a Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego. You would think that an article in Fortune, written by an economics professor, would be well-reasoned and insightful. And you would be wrong. Here’s what the good professor has to say about the question of how much money is “actuarially necessary to fund fully the existing pension liability”:
I have not investigated details behind the latter argument. But given both the near-term cash flow problems and the deteriorating long-run fundamentals of this enterprise, my prior expectation would not have been that existing commitments to existing employees have been so adequately overfunded that there is $50 billion free just waiting to allocate to rising health costs as well.
So you don’t actually have to check the facts- if your “prior expectation” is that the USPS’s future retirement obligations couldn’t possibly be overfunded, then it must be true! Case closed.
Professor Hamilton’s analysis fits perfectly with Congressman Ross’s justification for the prefunding requirement, which basically comes down to “because I say so“.
The professor does offer another compelling reason to force the USPS into bankruptcy though- he says he doesn’t get any mail. He apparently is not concerned with the fact that despite the drop in mail volume, Americans still spent $67 billion last year sending the stuff. That’s more revenue than either Apple or Microsoft took in. And that doesn’t take into consideration the million or so people employed by companies that rely on the mail.
But don’t bother the professor with all those useless “facts”- he’s got his “prior expectations” to rely on!
via Next up on the bailout list: The mailman? – The Term Sheet: Fortune’s deals blog Term Sheet.


