The “analysis” Bill Burrus refers to in today’s “Burrus Update” is many things, but an analysis is not one of them. The argument made by the IRET is that “delivery point growth is self-financing”. It also makes the perfectly reasonable observation that “Normal businesses regard added customers as a financial opportunity.”
Sounds good- until you consider the fact that we don’t charge by the delivery. The only way added delivery points could be a financial plus is if the added deliveries produce more new mailings, and therefore revenue. IRET backs up its “self-financing” argument with hypothetical examples of how added delivery points should increase USPS revenues. Oddly enough, the paper never gets around to showing exactly how much new revenue has actually been produced by these “self-financing” new delivery points.
Why not?
Maybe because the facts don’t fit the argument?
In FY 2006, the USPS had a 1.28% increase in delivery points over the previous year. So that must have produced a healthy increase in revenue, right? Well, revenue was up 4.0% over the prior year- so maybe Burrus and the neocons are right?! No, sorry- the increased revenue came from the 5.4% rate increase that went into effect in January.
And take a look at revenue per delivery point. Not surprisingly, it was also up last year, but by just 2.7%. Hmmm… A 5.4% price increase in January produces a 4% revenue increase over the whole year, and revenue per delivery is only up 2.7%? So tell me again exactly how new delivery points pay for themselves???
And did I mention that even though revenue was up 4% thanks to the rate increase, expenses were up 4.9%?
But let’s look at the bottom line- how much additional volume did the new delivery points actually produce? Mail volume was up just 0.66%. So volume grew at less than half the rate deliveries did. See if you can find that number in IRET’s “analysis”. And don’t forget that the only volume growth the USPS had was in categories of mail that Bill Burrus detests- presort and advertising.
So why is Bill in bed with the people who are out to destroy the Postal Service? Beats me.
(By the way, if you’d like to play along at home, the numbers cited here are available in the USPS Financial and Operating Statements for FY 2006. If you’d like an unprotected version so you can come up with your own fascinating numbers, click here.)